BuildForce Canada’s Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward reports for 2026 to 2035 project renewed residential growth and sustained high levels of non-residential activity

OTTAWA, Ontario, July 20, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Construction investment levels in Canada rose in 2025, as further growth in the non-residential sector supplemented an increase in the residential sector that was driven by an increase in housing starts. Although the outlook calls for investment in both to grow through 2035, the two sectors will chart diverging paths.

BuildForce Canada today released its Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward highlight reports for Canada’s residential and non-residential construction sectors, covering the forecast period from 2026 to 2035. Funded in part by the Government of Canada's Sectoral Workforce Solutions Program, the reports highlight the growing demand for construction across the country, and the role played by the industry as a key source of employment and economic growth, as well as a delivery agent for housing and infrastructure assets.

“Construction is a key contributor to Canada’s economic output, accounting for 7% of our national gross domestic product and employing 1.6 million people, or about one in every 13 working Canadians,” says Warren Douglas, Chair of BuildForce Canada. “As construction is increasingly called upon to deliver on public policy initiatives and to sustain Canada’s exceptional quality of life, the industry must continue to promote itself as a first-choice career option for young people and people from under-represented groups if it is to refresh its labour force and continue to deliver essential infrastructure.”

Residential construction activity enters the forecast period on a downward trend. Investment levels rose significantly into 2021, but have slowed since due to a combination of factors, including elevated interest rates, reduced population growth, and uncertainty created by the ongoing tariff dispute between Canada and the United States. The outlook calls for further contractions in investment to continue between 2026 and 2028. Growth returns thereafter and to the end of the decade, led initially by demand for new housing and, in later years, by steady gains in demand for residential renovations.

By the end of the decade, residential employment is projected to contract by 4% compared to the elevated levels seen in 2025, with losses exclusive to the new housing component.

“The residential construction labour force is aging, and this presents significant challenges for the sector going forward,” says Frank Lohmann, Interim Chief Executive Officer of the Canadian Home Builders’ Association. “The 135,000 workers that are projected to retire by 2035 represent more than one-fifth of the sector’s current labour force. Now is very much the time for the industry to keep a sharp focus on recruiting and training new workers to replace those who are exiting the sector.”

Meanwhile, activity in the non-residential construction sector is projected to rise into 2029 on the strength of major project activity in every province. Increases are stronger in the engineering construction sector during this period with work ongoing or planned to start on major transit, utility, mining, and critical mineral projects across the country, as well as on several of the nation-building projects announced by the federal government. Further growth is forecast in the institutional, commercial, and industrial (ICI) buildings sector, with significant healthcare and education projects planned or underway across the country, and projected growth in commercial building activity in later years.

Although investment in both components, and in the non-residential sector as a whole, slows in later years as known projects pass peak activity periods or conclude, investment relating to the maintenance of the non-residential building stock, including shutdown and turnaround maintenance events, is projected to rise significantly through to the end of the decade.

These factors combine to elevate non-residential construction employment by 6% compared to 2025 levels by 2035, with notable gains in ICI buildings construction and non-residential maintenance activity offsetting a small decline in employment relating to engineering construction.

“Employment demands are projected to be significant across the non-residential sector to the end of the forecast period, and particularly as investment rises to a forecast peak in 2029,” says Irwin Bess, Executive Director of BuildForce Canada. “Our scenario model is currently tracking nearly 800 major projects across the country with a combined value of more than $500 billion. We are also tracking a long list of further projects that have not yet reached final investment decisions and therefore have not been modeled into our forecast scenario. Any of these projects could have significant implications on investment and employment growth as and when they are approved.”

Labour market pressures remained elevated in the residential sector in 2025 across many of the 34 trades and occupations tracked by BuildForce Canada. As demand eases into the early forecast years, pressures are expected to lessen, with some trades facing potential labour force surpluses. Labour markets in the non-residential sector also face periods of tightness in many provinces and regions, with demands closely linked to the timing of major projects.

“Labour market pressures in the construction sector have eased since the immediate post-pandemic period,” says Graham Polischuk, Vice-Chair of BuildForce Canada. “But while the industry’s average unemployment rate is returning to more traditional levels of between 5% and 6%, this trend is being driven in part by a contracting labour force, which itself may be a function of slowing residential construction demand. Given the volume of projects planned across the country, and projected growth in the residential sector after 2027, the industry must maintain a clear focus on recruiting and retaining workers to ensure a strong and healthy labour force.”

Residential outlooks vary across provinces while non-residential activities are sustained by major project demands
Three of the four Atlantic provinces reported increases in overall construction activity in 2025, with growth in their respective residential and non-residential sectors. Only Newfoundland and Labrador reported an overall contraction in construction investment as a decline in the province’s non-residential sector offset a gain in residential activity.

The outlook calls for residential construction investment to contract in all four provinces to the end of the decade. In general, activity is stepping down from peak periods reported in 2024 and 2025, when population growth was highest and demand for housing greatest. Although Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador are forecast to experience slight positive investment cycles after 2028, the outlook for Nova Scotia and New Brunswick sees gains in activity relating to residential renovations more than offset by losses in new housing.

The non-residential outlook for Atlantic Canada sees growth driven by major projects in three of the four provinces.

• Activity in Newfoundland and Labrador is expected to rise to a peak in 2031, driven by strong growth in both the engineering construction sector and the construction of ICI buildings. Construction investment is highest as work on the Bay du Nord offshore oil development project combines with the expansion of the Churchill Falls hydroelectric facility. Investment levels decline thereafter and to the end of the forecast period as key projects conclude.
• In Nova Scotia, investment is projected to rise to a peak in 2029, with growth in both engineering construction and the construction of ICI buildings. In later years, engineering construction is forecast to trend upward, driven primarily by renewable energy projects, while investment in ICI buildings construction recedes.
• The outlook for New Brunswick sees non-residential investment rise to a peak in 2027 with the expected start of core construction on the NB Power Mactaquac Hydro Dam Refurbishment project as well as the Irving Pulp & Paper NextGen Project. Levels remain elevated to the end of the scenario period.
• After reaching a peak in 2026, investment in Prince Edward Island trends down into 2031 with the conclusion of major projects. A slight upturn follows in later years.
  
  

Construction investment levels were elevated in Quebec in 2025, with both the residential and non-residential sectors recording growth. Investment in the former is projected to step down from the elevated levels reported in 2025, reaching a forecast low in 2029 as new housing activity, in particular, slows. Later years see most growth that is driven by rising demand for residential renovations. Activity in the non-residential sector is projected to rise into 2027 as both the ICI buildings and engineering construction components are elevated. Investment ebbs and flows to the end of the forecast period, in line with the timing of major projects.

Ontario’s construction outlook calls for investment in residential construction to slow into 2027 before recovering significantly to the end of the decade. Initially, demand for new housing in the province is expected to be further constrained by lower immigration levels and a surplus of unsold units. In later years, growth is expected to be driven by strong levels of new construction among both single-detached and multi-unit dwellings. Activity in the non-residential sector, meanwhile, continues to be driven by a long list of major projects underway in the engineering construction sector and in the construction of industrial, commercial, and institutional buildings. Supported also by strong demand for non-residential maintenance activities, these combine to elevate investment to a peak in 2029 that is sustained into the early 2030s.

In Manitoba, the outlook calls for growth in the residential sector to 2035. Initially, growth in residential renovations mostly offsets a slowdown in demand for new housing construction. Both components, however, return to growth after 2029. Non-residential construction activity is projected to climb to a peak in 2030, driven by a large volume of significant engineering construction projects. As these pass peak activity periods in the early 2030s, growth is sustained by strong demand for ICI buildings.

Residential construction investment levels in Saskatchewan are expected to trend strongly upward across the forecast period, driven by strong new-home construction activity. Investment in new housing in particular is projected to rise significantly into 2029 and again between 2031 and 2035. This growth is underpinned by sustained demand for residential renovations. In the non-residential sector, investment levels are expected to remain virtually unchanged across the forecast period, with fluctuations recorded over the decade in line with the start and conclusion of several major projects.

The outlook for construction in Alberta sees residential investment levels rise initially to a forecast peak in 2026 before contracting through to the end of the decade. Across the decade, demand for new housing is expected to be constrained by reductions in international migration, and later by slowing growth in the construction of multi-unit residential properties. Investment in the construction of non-residential buildings, meanwhile, is expected to grow moderately to the end of the forecast period, with both engineering construction and ICI buildings construction expected to rise over the decade. These increases are backed by steady gains in demand for non-residential maintenance activities.

In British Columbia, the outlook calls for contractions in both the residential and non-residential sectors. The former is expected to step down from its 2022 peak, with contractions expected through 2028 before demand generally stabilizes to the end of the decade. Most affected over this period is the construction of multi-unit dwellings. In the non-residential sector, investment is projected to rise to an historic peak in 2027 as work culminates on many large-scale engineering projects, including four federal “nation-building” projects in the northern region. It slows thereafter and into 2032 as these projects conclude.

Recruiting youth and under-represented groups of workers remains a key solution for meeting labour force demands
Meeting the industry’s near- and long-term labour market demand requirements will require a combination of strategies that include increasing the recruitment and training of youth, and looking to traditionally under-represented groups, such as women, Indigenous Peoples, and newcomers to Canada, as well as to workers from other industries, to augment the available pool of local workers.

Growth in construction demands over the forecast period is projected to require the labour force to expand by 32,100 workers. When this growth is added to projected retirements, the industry’s overall hiring requirement rises to 306,200 workers by 2034.

Based on historical trends, much of this requirement can be met by the expected recruitment of approximately 271,900 new entrant workers under the age of 30 during this period. However, even at these heightened levels of recruitment, the industry may face a shortage of as many as 34,300 workers by 2034.

(Note that discrete analyses of the residential and non-residential labour force trends are available in their respective reports.)

In 2025, there were approximately 215,300 women employed in Canada’s construction industry. Of them, 34% worked directly in on-site construction. However, as a share of the total 1.25 million tradespeople employed in the industry, women accounted for just 6% of the on-site construction workforce.

The Indigenous population is another under-represented group that presents recruitment opportunities. In 2025, Indigenous Peoples accounted for 4.8% of Canada’s construction labour force, which is a slight increase from the share reported in 2016, and is notably higher than the 3.5% represented in the overall labour force. As the Indigenous population continues to grow, the sector must continue to work with Indigenous communities to promote career opportunities to their youth and invest in initiatives that foster long-term retention and a welcoming workplace environment where they can build fulfilling careers.

The construction industry may also leverage newcomers over the coming decade to meet anticipated labour market requirements. Based on current trends and adjusted federal immigration targets, Canada is expected to welcome more than 3.2 million new immigrants between 2026 and 2035. This will make newcomers a key contributor to the industry’s labour force. In 2025, newcomers comprised about 20% of the total construction labour force nationally. That figure is notably lower than the share (28%) in the country’s overall labour force.

Increasing the participation rate of women, Indigenous Peoples, and newcomers will be critical in helping Canada’s construction industry address its future labour force needs.

BuildForce Canada is a national industry-led organization that represents all sectors of Canada’s construction industry. Its mandate is to support the labour market development needs of the construction and maintenance industry. As part of these activities, BuildForce works with key industry stakeholders, including contractors, proponents of construction, labour providers, governments, and training providers to identify both demand and supply trends that will impact labour force capacity in the sector, and supports the career searches of job seekers wanting to work in the industry. BuildForce also leads programs and initiatives that support workforce upskilling, workforce productivity improvements, improvements to training modalities, human resource tools to support the adoption of industry best practices, as well as other value-added initiatives focused on supporting the industry’s labour force development needs. Visit www.buildforce.ca.

For further information, contact:

James Raiswell
Director of Communications
BuildForce Canada
raiswell@buildforce.ca
343-998-1674

Warren Douglas
Chair
BuildForce Canada
306-352-7909

Frank Lohmann
Interim Chief Executive Officer
Canadian Home Builders’ Association
media@chba.ca

Graham Polischuk
Vice-Chair
BuildForce Canada
780-992-4798

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